ReveNet has released a new whitepaper analysing the challenges and future of the global application-to-person (A2P) SMS industry, valued at USD $55 billion, with a focus on the need for urgent operator intervention to address falling trust and transparency.
The report examines how rising termination costs – by as much as 90% in some Asia-Pacific (APAC) markets – are prompting enterprises to shift from SMS to over-the-top (OTT) alternatives and highlights regulatory fragmentation across the region compared to more stable dynamics in the United States and Western Europe.
Market pressures
According to the whitepaper, the APAC region is witnessing significant cost volatility, leading to a decline in A2P SMS revenue and encouraging enterprises to migrate to OTT and API-based messaging options. The report attributes these cost pressures to factors such as artificially inflated traffic, grey routing, and widespread fraud, which erode trust among enterprises.
Juniper Research forecasts that without remedial action, A2P SMS revenue across APAC, Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America could decline by as much as 23% by 2029.
The whitepaper stresses the difference between APAC and more regulated markets like the US and Western Europe, where centralised oversight and greater transparency have helped sustain operator revenue.
Transparency and collaboration
ReveNet has outlined a vision for rebuilding trust within the A2P SMS ecosystem by promoting transparency and encouraging collaboration between operators, enterprises, and independent third parties. The company proposes open-book partnerships that provide mobile network operators (MNOs) with complete visibility over their SMS traffic and recommends free, third-party audits to reinforce transparency.
ReveNet's portfolio includes real-time fraud detection and blocking – including flash calling and OTT bypass – penetration testing as a service, and a portal that offers live analytics and market benchmarking. The aim is to deliver tailored revenue assurance for each operator's network and restore confidence in the messaging channel.
Potential for recovery
ReveNet's analysis suggests that greater transparency and rationalised pricing across APAC could help recover up to USD $4.7 billion in lost revenue globally by 2029. The document points to the risks of not acting, noting that failures in regulation, fragmented oversight, and inconsistent pricing regimes could further accelerate enterprise migration to non-SMS channels.
Industry outlook
The report references Juniper Research data supporting the central role of SMS in business communications, especially for delivering one-time passwords and other mission-critical messages. Despite its established status, the channel is increasingly threatened by security concerns and cost challenges.
US model contrasts
The whitepaper explores how the US approach to regulation and oversight has offered lessons for APAC markets, arguing that centralised models could be adapted to address revenue fragmentation and rising fraud elsewhere. While the US and Western European operators have been able to stabilise the messaging market by enforcing rules and regular audits, APAC's fragmentation has created vulnerabilities and reduced profitability for operators.
The report concludes that operator-led action is vital for retaining enterprise clients, reducing fraud, and restoring the reputation of SMS as a reliable communication channel.
Alongside its recommendations, ReveNet highlights the introduction of free third-party audits as a step to enhance transparency and restore confidence in supply chains, particularly across Asian markets, where concerns over inflated pricing and fraud are acute.
Roadmap for operators
The document proposes a multi-faceted approach, combining real-time monitoring, independent assessment, and data-driven decision-making to reinforce operator control. ReveNet's whitepaper underscores the argument that the only long-term solution is for operators to take an active role in managing their value chains, supported by transparent partner relationships and robust technology for revenue protection.

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